基于基线数据和三维超声构建子宫内膜癌术后复发/转移预测模型及实证

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-6233.2025.04.020

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Abstract Objective: To construct a predictive model and empirical validation for postoperative recurrence/metastasis of endometrial carcinoma (EMC) based on baseline data and three-dimensional ultrasound. Methods: A total of 289 patients with EMC who underwent surgical treatment at Linfen People's Hospital,Shanxi Province from January 2020 to June 2022 were selected and divided into a recurrence group and a non-recurrence group according to whether recurrence/metastasis occurred within 2 years after surgery.The clinical data and three-dimensional ultrasound data of the two groups were statistically compared.The Lasso-Logistic regression equation was used to analyze the influencing factors of recurrence/metastasis after EMC,and a nomogram prediction model was constructed and validated. Results: Two years after surgery,71 out of 289 EMC patients had recurrence/metastasis,with a recurrence rate of 24.57% (71/289).The recurrence group had a higher proportion of patients with tumor diameter,FIGO stage,pathological grade,muscle invasion ≥1/2,lymphatic vascular cancer thrombus,and VFI than the non-recurrence group,and a lower proportion of patients with postoperative radiotherapy and RI than the non-recurrence group (P<0.05).The Lasso-Logistic regression equation showed that FIGO stage,pathological grade,muscle invasion,postoperative radiotherapy,lymphatic and vascular cancer thrombus,RI,and VFI were independent factors associated with postoperative recurrence/metastasis (P<0.05).The C-index of the Nomogram prediction model constructed based on the above influencing factors was 0.815.The calibration curve and ROC curve showed that the model had high sensitivity and accuracy,and had good predictive value. Conclusion: The recurrence rate of EMC patients is high two years after surgery,and the independent factors associated with postoperative recurrence/metastasis are FIGO stage,pathological grade,muscle invasion,postoperative radiotherapy,lymphovascular invasion,RI,and VFI.The nomogram model constructed based on these factors has high sensitivity and accuracy,and can accurately identify potential high-risk populations in the early stage for personalized prevention and treatment measures.

Key words： Endometrial marcinoma Three-dimensional ultrasound Recurrence/Metastasis Internal validation External validation

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http://www.hbyxzzs.cn/EN/10.3969/j.issn.1006-6233.2025.04.020 OR http://www.hbyxzzs.cn/EN/Y2025/V31/I4/648

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